The GOP's '08 enthusiam problem

Sure, its a bit early to take a look at the 2008 election. I personally thought it ridiculous when Wolf Blitzer was dedicating a segment of his show to analyzing polls for an election 21 months away.

So understanding that things will almost certainly change, I think one of the initial observations one can glean from the early, early stages of the campaign is what may turn out to be a huge problem for the Republicans: enthusiasm.

If there is one thing that is true about U.S. elections these days, it's that they're close. Bush 43's majority in 2004 was 51% to Kerry's 49%. He didn't win a majority (or a plurality) in the well-scrutinized 2000 election. Clinton never won a majority. Bush 41 won 53% in 1988. So for the past twenty years, the difference in elections has been mainly about two things: winning the independents and turning out your base.

Disregarding the fact that the 2006 election showed that independents are leaning Democrat these days, the GOP may be setting itself up for a large turnout problem in 2008.

If you look closely at the top three Democratic candidates right now - Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards - along with the top three Republican candidates - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney - an interesting pattern emerges.

All of the candidates have their flaws. On the Democratic side, Clinton is too cold and calculated, Obama too inexperienced, and Edwards has been out of office for two years. With the Republicans, Giuliani is too liberal, McCain too wrong on the war (at least currently), and Romney a Mormon - not a flaw of course but sadly more of a problem in the eyes of the evangelical Christian Republican base than, say, Clinton's being a woman or Obama's being black is to the Democratic base.

The difference comes down to the fact that despite their "flaws," each of the Democratic candidates seems to elicit an enthusiasm among the Democratic base that the Republican candidates do not. All of the Democratic primary talk is focused on how each of these candidates can overcome the overwhelming support of the other two. All of the Republican primary talk is focused on how each of these candidates can garner any Republican support at all.

Obama and Edwards voters may not support Hillary in the primary, but they will almost certainly vote for her in the general election should she be the candidate. If Giuliani wins the Republican primary, it's harder to see supporters of the more socially conservative Romney voting for him rather than just staying home, and visa versa.

Essentially we have a reversal of the 2004 election, magnified. John Kerry was not a candidate who could excite Democrats who would otherwise stay home to vote. Bush, on the other hand, rallied his conservative base to the polls and they carried him to victory. Bush was thus able to win despite even the fact that independents leaned slightly towards Kerry.

Again, it's important to remember that a lot can change in 21 months. But if enthusiasm continues to be a problem for the Republican candidates, give an early advantage to the Democrats in 2008.